Question 1

When do HYPE tokens unlock?

Accepted Answer

Core-contributor vesting began with a cliff in November 2025 and now runs on a monthly cadence, with tokens vesting on the 6th of each month. The schedule stretches over years: the bulk of contributor vesting lands in 2027–2028, which means unlock pressure is a slow, multi-year curve rather than a single event to trade around. Each month's date is known in advance — BuyHype surfaces the next one prominently alongside its live verdict — but the amount that actually moves is not fixed, which is where most unlock analysis goes wrong.

Question 2

How much HYPE unlocks each month?

Accepted Answer

The scheduled ceiling is roughly 9.92M HYPE per month. That is the maximum that can vest — not what actually gets distributed. Actual distributions are discretionary and have historically run far below the ceiling. The distinction matters enormously: multiplying 9.92M by the token price and announcing it as monthly sell pressure overstates reality on two counts — less is typically distributed, and vested tokens are not automatically sold. Treat the ceiling as the worst case, the historical pattern as the base case, and the actual on-chain numbers as the only figures worth acting on.

Question 3

Why are actual distributions smaller than the ceiling?

Accepted Answer

Because distribution is a decision, not an automation. The vesting schedule defines what can be released to contributors each month; how much actually moves is discretionary. The observable record since the November 2025 cliff is distributions consistently well under the ceiling. We will not speculate about motives — what matters analytically is the mechanic: a discretionary release valve means supply can arrive slower than the schedule implies, and equally that it could accelerate within the ceiling in any given month. Both possibilities belong in an honest model, which is why BuyHype tracks realized distributions rather than assuming the maximum.

Question 4

Do unlocks make the HYPE price go down?

Accepted Answer

Two-sided, honestly. The bear mechanics: unlocks add potential supply from holders with a near-zero cost basis, and only about 26% of the 1B max supply circulates as of mid-2026 — so the locked share is large relative to the float. The bull mechanics: the schedule is public and therefore largely priced in advance; actual distributions have run below the ceiling; and the Assistance Fund continuously buys with protocol revenue on the other side. Markets move on surprises relative to expectations — a smaller-than-feared distribution can even read as bullish. The date alone tells you little; the realized amount tells you more.

Question 5

How do unlocks compare to the Assistance Fund buyback?

Accepted Answer

They are the two sides of HYPE's supply ledger. Sell side: a vesting ceiling of roughly 9.92M HYPE per month, discretionary and historically smaller in practice. Buy side: the Assistance Fund, funded by protocol fees — over $1B cumulative as of mid-2026, with daily revenue in the single-digit millions — has accumulated roughly 45M HYPE, about 4.5% of max supply and equivalent to several months of maximum unlocks, and governance treats those holdings as effectively burned. Neither side is constant: distributions vary by choice, the buyback varies with volume. The balance between them is an empirical, month-by-month question.

Question 6

When is the unlock pressure heaviest?

Accepted Answer

The bulk of contributor vesting sits in 2027–2028, so the schedule gets heavier before it gets lighter. That shapes how different horizons should read it: for near-term analysis, the next monthly date and the realized distribution matter most; for a multi-year thesis, the question is whether Hyperliquid's fee growth — and with it the Assistance Fund's buying power — scales up before the heaviest vesting years arrive. A growing revenue base meeting the 2027–2028 supply wave is the bull path; stagnant volumes meeting it is the bear path. Neither is knowable today, which is exactly why a static prediction here would be dishonest.

Question 7

How does BuyHype's model weigh the unlock schedule?

Accepted Answer

Inside the Tokenomics dimension — one of six in the Bayesian model, alongside Macro, Price, Fundamentals, Positioning, and Risk. The model factors the time to the next monthly unlock, the circulating float (~26%), the Assistance Fund balance read live from the Hyperliquid API, and the 7-day unstaking queue versus the AF's 7-day buyback as a real-time supply-flow check. An approaching unlock nudges the posterior down from its ~50% base rate only as far as the evidence justifies; strong fundamentals can offset it entirely. The verdict refreshes hourly. As always, it is information — not financial advice.

Question 8

Where can I track the next HYPE unlock?

Accepted Answer

BuyHype's home page shows the next unlock date alongside the live verdict, the real-time price, and the Assistance Fund balance, refreshed hourly — so you see the supply event in context rather than in isolation. The underlying facts are all public: vesting hits on the 6th of each month, distributions are visible on-chain, and the AF address can be watched directly. The practical habit worth building: note the date, then check the realized distribution after it passes. The gap between the feared ceiling and the actual release has been one of the more instructive recurring data points in HYPE's short history.

The HYPE unlock schedule, explained