Hyperliquid Weekly — HYPE down 7.7% as fees slip 15.6%, but stablecoins rise 2%

2026-07-13 · 2026-w29

The BuyHype Bayesian model holds its verdict at WAIT with a 58% up-probability, unchanged from a week ago. The single biggest reason the probability did not move is that the 7.7% price decline in HYPE to $64.90 was accompanied by a 15.6% drop in protocol fees to $12.05M, offsetting any bullish signal from the 2.0% rise in stablecoins on Hyperliquid to $6.17B.

Protocol fees fell to $12.05M from $14.28M the prior week, a 15.6% decline that aligns with the broader market downturn. Chain DeFi TVL also contracted 6.8% to $1.40B, suggesting reduced on-chain activity. However, stablecoin inflows continued to grow, reaching $6.17B, which may indicate capital waiting on the sidelines for deployment.

The Assistance Fund now holds 45.79M HYPE after a net buyback of 0.12M HYPE over the past 7 days. Meanwhile, the unstaking queue shows 2.81M HYPE set to complete within the next week, creating potential selling pressure. The net supply dynamic is modestly bullish if buybacks accelerate, but the queue remains a near-term overhang.

HIP-3 builder markets continue to gain traction, with 9 DEXs contributing a combined 24-hour volume of $2.78B. Top builder XYZ alone accounted for $2.77B, led by markets xyz:SKHX ($1.02B), xyz:XYZ100 ($249.60M), xyz:CL ($179.86M), xyz:MU ($140.39M), and xyz:DRAM ($138.74M). This demonstrates growing ecosystem diversification beyond core perps.

News headlines this week highlighted Hyperliquid's record 9% share of the global crypto perpetual futures market, as well as RWA open interest hitting $4B and total open interest peaking at $11B in 2026. However, geopolitical risks emerged with US-Iran strikes and the Strait of Hormuz closure pushing oil prices up on Hyperliquid. Separately, Hyperion and Hyperliquid were noted as the only DATs with positive unrealized PnL, and DATs now capture 7% of HYPE supply.

Looking ahead, watch whether the unstaking queue accelerates or decelerates, and whether protocol fees can stabilize above $12M. This is data commentary, not financial advice.

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